Will Global rising inflation, concern of US Economy Stagflation and China slow Economic Growth will halt the India’s Economic growth? To gain such Insights about Economic News and learn with Case Studies and Live Analysis, Visit Best Stock Market Institute in Jaipur. They will guide you with practical analysis in trading, Investment and Career Oriented Courses with 100% placement.
Last Week on 12th October 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained India’s GDP growth forecast for FY22 and FY23 at 9.5% and 8.5% in its recent World Economic Outlook report. Further India is projected to be the fastest growing economy for Next two years. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitaraman highlighted to keep the liquidity stimulus and to keep central bank policy easy as the country recover from COVID 19. The Central Bank too is projecting the same growth in its recent monetary policy meeting.
The India Growth story is also showing in Economic Indicators on Month-on-Month basis by showing an upward tick.
Indian Economy have opened up and recovered from the shock of second wave and almost reached pre-COVID levels due to high vaccination and falling cases which is positive sign for further growth.
Economic Indicators of Industrial Production, Cement and Steel Consumption, Capital Goods and Consumer goods output, manufacturing goods index have seen robust sequential growth consistently and have almost reached 2019 levels.
Due to an increase in consumption demand GST collection is robust and reached more than 10% higher to pre-COVID levels.
The government of India have ensured liquidity boost to support the economy, sale of asset monetization plan including IPO of LIC, Air India Sale, aggressive divestment of govt owned companies, sector specific schemes, agriculture reforms. This have led to V-shape recovery of Indian Economy. COVID-19 vaccine access and aggressive vaccination program have led to stead fast opening up of economy after the impact of second wave. At the current pace of vaccination India will be able to fully administer doses to all adults by the end of March 2022. Due to this the economic activity in all sectors however uneven have led to rapid recovery in all sectors supported to increased demand from consumers.
Indian Export and Import Sector have grown rapidly due to pent up demand in global economy and increase in energy and metal prices. There need to be a bit caution as the same can lead to increase in inflation which can have negative impact and central banks increase in interest rate can lead to slowing growth going further.
Capital expenditure by asset heavy model like real estate, infrastructure, transport and power is yet to kick off as no major capex expansion is seen in this sector. Manufacturing capex is the only sector which have seen significant growth. Service industry have contributed the current economic recovery to a significant extent. This uneven growth is the negative factor and the recovery in asset heavy model will be the key for further growth going forward.
Government of India stimulus to boost the recovery was met by high budget deficit of 8% and 6.8% in 2020 and 2021 by disinvestment. It would not be further possible to increase deficit and government have to shrink to meet its long term policy stance. Even Central Banks have reduced interest rates to historical lows and have reached its limits so the onus will be on government for effective fiscal policy to ensure further growth and incentives and PLI schemes to manufacturing and agriculture sector. Budget 2022 will play a key driver for further economic growth.
High inflation in global economy due to surge in commodity and energy prices poses a risk to India’s growth trajectory. The rising inflation is due to supply side constraint during the pandemic. Current inflation trajectory in metals and energy is continuously increasing higher than expected by central banks across the globe. US central bank will start increasing interest rate by mid-2022 and will stop asset purchase program which have infused liquidity in global markets. This can lead to outflow from Indian Stock Markets. Slow growth and rising inflation can lead to stagflation in global economy which is a serious cause of concern for Stock Markets in India and global markets. The central banks in India will have to start increasing interest rates due to headline inflation going above 6% consistently. There is also a concern arising from debt of Chinese companies and slow growth of Chinese economy. This are the key cause of concern in global equity markets which can lead to downward spiral in Indian and Global equity markets.
The global equity markets have given a rapid recovery and have made new highs due to liquidity boost and low interest rates and have rebounded from the aftershock of COVID 19. Further the current rally can only be sustained by fiscal policy measures and economic reforms. The global cause of concern is rising headline inflation due to surge in commodity and energy prices which can force central banks to start increasing interest rates which can lead to lower consumer spending and consumption which can lead to slow real growth and derail the current stock market rally.
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